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Many novice bettors are told to stick only to straight bets. That’s because they don’t do the work or research to make wise investments with teasers and parlays. You too may have been told that parlay wagers are considered sucker bets. That’s not accurate at all. There are several instances where betting parlays is a profitable proposition.
Now, that doesn’t mean you should just throw any two or more teams that you like together into a teaser or a parlay. You have to use a different strategy. This article is going to cover some solid parlay situations where you can KILL a book that allows you to make certain combinations (Check out our teaser guide to see what we mean for each of the different sports).
Correlated Parlays: What They Are Explained & How to Find Them
There’s a lot that goes into making a strong parlay bet. First things first, you need to make sure you understand how parlays work. That’s just the start, there’s more advanced stuff like when is the right time to hedge your bets.
I’m not going to get into all of that today. Instead, I’m going to introduce to you what a correlated parlay is. I’ll explain exactly what it is and how to find them.
Definition
I’m going to keep it simple. A correlated parlay is a wager in which you have two bets that are tied together. If one of the wagers wins, your chances of winning the second bet increases. Most sports books are not going to accept these types of wagers because if they did, they wouldn’t stay in business very long.
Are they Profitable?
So what would it take for a correlated parlay to be profitable? If you are hooking up two teams the payout is typically 2.5-to-1. That means that you have to win 28.6% of your two teamers to turn a profit. That is figured by the return of 3.5 divided by your risk which is 1.
Now a few books like 5Dimes will give you a 2.64-to-1 payout. In that case, you only have to win 27.5% of your two-team parlays in order to turn a profit.
Let’s assume one side of your parlays hits at 50% of the time. How probable does the second event need to be in order for the parlay to be to your advantage? For the typical two-team parlay payout it needs to be 57.2% (.572 * .5 = 2.86). If your payout is 2.64-to-1 then it’s 55% (.55 * .5 = .275).
Now let’s look at situations where if one leg of the parlay wins, the other wins at more than a 57.2% clip. There are several different types of these wagers. I’m going to cover two of the most basic ones in this article.
Why You Can’t Parlay First Half with Full Game Odds
First, we are going to look at the correlation between the first half spread and the spread for the game. Next, we will look at the correlation of betting the spread and total on the same game.
If a team covers the first-half spread of a game, how often do they also cover the point spread for the entire game? If you know the team that covers the first half line is more likely to cover for the game, you can parlay those wagers and make a killing, right?
That is exactly the question I wanted to answer, and I was pretty impressed by the results.
First things first, I want everyone to understand that I am aware that no online or Vegas sportsbooks (that I know of) allow correlated parlays. This article is more about why correlated first half parlays aren’t allowed, however, if you have a local book happens to allow them, you can most definitely use this information to your advantage, that is, until your book cuts you off!
Why it is Profitable
What exactly is a correlated first half/full game parlay? You are looking to bet the first half and the full game on the same team. Either the favorite or the underdog. You can do both, but that will appear pretty obvious and likely to get you cut off sooner.
I’ve provided the hard numbers for the NFL and NBA below, but let’s just talk about the method behind the madness first. We are going to use typical two-team parlay odds, which pay 2.5-to-1 (or bet $100 to win $250). We will also use $100 as the base bet amount to make things as easy to understand as possible.
Let’s say the Patriots are favored in a game against the Lions by 7 points. In the first half, they are likely to be 3.5-4 point favorites. Our bets for this game would be:
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Patriots -3.5 (1st Half)/Patriots -7 (Game)
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Lions +3.5 (1st Half)/Lions +7 (Game)
Now obviously one of these wagers is going to lose, but that’s ok! Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit. Let’s say you decide you are going to bet correlated parlays on five games on a Sunday, how many parlays would you need to hit in order to turn a profit?
The worst you can perform and still turn a profit is to go 3-7 (30%) on the night. Here’s the math:
- 7 Losses x $100 = $700
- 3 Wins x $250 = $750
- Total Profit = $50
Now, based on an uncorrelated two-team parlay, you are only expected to win 25% of your bets (50% chance to win each = 25% chance to win both). This makes sense – otherwise, everyone would just win truck loads of money by betting parlays.
The secret here is to increase our chances of winning the second piece of the parlay. That’s where the correlation between the first half line and the game line come in. When teams cover the first half line, they have better than a 50% of covering the line for the game, right? Logic would tell us that they would, however, hard data is even better.
Historical Data from the NFL and NBA
NFL
- Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 73.3%
- Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 76.7%
NBA
- Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 70.1%
- Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 69.8%
In all of these situations, if the team covers the first half line, they are much more likely to cover the game line. For example, using NFL favorites, you are given the standard 50% chance to win the first half, but then a 73.3% chance to win the game, meaning you have about a 36.6% chance of winning your parlay.
Since you only need to hit 30% of your parlays (28.6%, to be exact) to turn a profit, these bets are a no-brainer! In fact, if you can increase your chance of winning the second bet in your parlay by 7% (so up to 57%), you should make a profit over time.
Let’s look at the expected return. Let’s just say you hit 75% in the NFL and 70% in the NBA to keep it simple. So .5 *.75 = .375 means 37.5% of the time you win $250. You lose $100 62.5% of the time. Your expected profit would be 93.75 (.375 * 250) – 62.50 (.625 * 100) for $31.25 for every $100 bet. Now if the number is 70% in the NBA you get .5 * .7 = .35. 35% of the time you’d win $250 and 65% of the time you’d lose $100. (.35 * 250) – (.65 * 100) = 87.50 – 65.00 for $22.50 of profit for every $100 bet.
You can now see why sportsbooks won’t allow you to bet parlays on the first half and game of most major sporting events. If bettors were allowed to wager on these, they would soon be out of business, as you are nearly guaranteed to make a profit over time with this method.
Of course, there may be some local books out there that aren’t aware of this, so don’t be afraid to ask around and see if there’s a sucker out there willing to take these bets!
Why No Same Game Parlays in Football? They Are Correlated
I took a look at the four major spread sports and ran the numbers. I was trying to find any situations where if a favorite or underdog covered and the total hit more than 57.2% of the time. Here is what I found.
College Football
I went back to the last 3,732 games a favorite covered the spread. What I found was the over had a record of 1,959-1,773 (52.5%). In the 3,361 games when the team a field goal or more favorite the over was 1,793-1,568 (53.3%). If the team was laying a touchdown or more the over was 1,328-1,082 (55.1%).
The over percentages started picking up when we look at double digit favorites. The over then hit 57.4% of the time on a record of 1,090-808. When a favorite of two touchdowns or more covers the over went 838-582 (59%). A 20+ point favorite covering leads to a 547-321 record for the over (63%).
When a team 28+ point favorite covers the over has hit 261-122 (68.1%) of the time. When you stretch the line out to 30 point favorites or higher the number jumps up to 216-92 (70.1%).
If a team a 35 points or more chalk and covers the over went 127-51 (71.3%). There have only been 95 favorites of 40+ points in recent years with a lined total. In those games, if the favorite covers the over was 65-29 (69.1%).
If instead of looking at the hard numbers you go with percentages then the magic number seems to be about 40%. The spread has to be 40% of the total for you to take the favorite and the over or the underdog and the under.
Overall this system has seen the over go 495-274 (64.4%) when the favorite covers. Keep that in mind when taking a look at the college football odds every week.
NFL
So let’s take a look at the same parameters in the NFL. Here you won’t find nearly the same correlation. Looking at all favorites the over has gone just 1,576-1,532 (50.7%).
Let’s see if the over hits at a higher rate as we increase the number. A field goal or more favorite covering means a record of just 1,289-1,245 for the OVER (50.9%). Move up to a touchdown or more you will find the over was 527-487 (52%). However, stretch it out to double digits and when the favorite covers the over only went 203-194 (51.1%).
Favorites of more than two touchdowns that covered also went over the total 56.2% of the time at 50-39.
There is no magic number with percentages here either. That makes sense. There aren’t going to be as large of favorites in the pros v. college. There are only 16 games that have seen a spread at 40% or more of the total.
The bottom line is you can’t rely on any sort of correlation to beat the pro lines each Sunday.
In basketball, you’ll find the trend reverses. This makes sense. What happens when a big favorite is up at the end of the game? Both teams kill the clock and try to get out of there. Here is the data that I found.
NBA
Favorites of 5.5 or more that cover goes UNDER 51.1% of the time at 3,368-3,224. If you stretch the number up to double digit favorites who hit, the UNDER lands 52.5% of the time at 1,006-912. If you go up to favorites of 15 points or more that cover the under has hit 56.2% of the time at 122-95.
College Basketball
There doesn’t seem to be as much correlation with NCAA basketball. When a team covers as a favorite of six or more the under went 4,309-3,954 (52.1%). Favorites of eight or more that covered went under 3,264-2,865 (53.3%) of the time.
However, once you went up to double digits the numbers started dropping. Double digit favorites went under 52.8% of the time (2,318-2,072). 13+ point chalk that covered only went under 1,371-1,231 (52.7%) of the time.
Conclusion
The problem with the correlated parlays is finding a place that will take your action. The reputable sportsbooks that we use know about these statistics and won’t let you play them. You will need to find a square book to take the action. Or, just pair up the smaller spreads that you really like with the corresponding total.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo
Time: NOON CT, CBS
Spread: NYJ -16.5
Total: 37.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The New York Jets are just 3-9 on the season but will travel to face Buffalo as 16.5-point favorites on the road. The game will air at Noon (CT) on CBS and has an over/under of 37.5 points according to NFL oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.
NYJ
The New York Jets have lost six-straight, but facing Buffalo could be just the thing needed to turn that losing streak around.
Darron Lee will be serving a four-game suspension for substance abuse, for violating the NFL’s drug policy.
Sam Darnold has struggled in his rookie season at quarterback for the Jets. He has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards, but he is averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt while having thrown 3.8 percent for interceptions. He has more picks (14) than touchdowns (11), and he averages just 200.6 yards per game. Still, there has been promise.
Darnold has five receivers with 200 yards or better on the season, paced by Quincy Enunwa’s 427 yards on 35 catches.
The Jets have not received tremendous production from its backfield, either. Isaiah Crowell leads the team with 680 yards but averages just 4.8 yards-per-attempt, and he has six touchdowns on the season. Bilal Powell has added another 343 yards but has not rushed for a single touchdown.
Darnold has also struggled rushing the ball with just 61 yards on his 30 attempts, with a single touchdown on the season. The Jets average just 20.3 points per game this season while surrendering 25.6 to opponents. Collectively, the Jets manage just 301 yards per game, with 192.4 coming from the pass and 108.6 via the rush. It has been a futile struggle the last six weeks in which the Jets have averaged just 12.3 points per game over the losing streak. With a low over/under, we are hardly expecting a Jets explosion, but against Buffalo, it should be able to better its output of the past six weeks. Last week, New York scored 22 against the Tennessee Titans, but its defense failed it in giving up 26 points to Marcus Mariota and the Titans.
BUF
Five Dimes Tony
The Buffalo Bills are 4-8 and just 2-3 at home where it hosts the Jets this week. Buffalo is in second-to-last place in the AFC East, with only the Jets trailing it. Prior to its 17-21 loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, the Bills had won two-straight with victories over the Jets (on the road) and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Five 5dimes Sportsbook
Josh Allen has struggled to adapt to the NFL. He has thrown for 1,223 yards but averages just 6.4 yards per attempt and has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (5). He also averages just 130.3 yards per game with a passer rating of 66.3. Last week was one of his better. Despite throwing two interceptions, he did throw two touchdowns as well and amassed 231 yards on 18 of 33 passing against the Dolphins. He also rushed just nine times for 135 yards including a long-rush of 28-yards.
Five Dimes Sportsbook
The rush game has been harsh to the Bills, though. LeSean McCoy looks pretty washed up, with his 3.3 yards-per-attempt average on 143 carries. He has scored two touchdowns and has 478 yards on the season, but it has been largely an ineffective short rush attack. Josh Allen is a much better rusher from the QB position. Allen has 389 rushing yards on just 57 attempts, with his 6.8 yard-per-carry average, and he leads the team with four rushing TDs. Chris Ivory is more like McCoy with just 3.3 yards per carry and Buffalo averages just 4.2 yards-per-attempt as a team with nine rushing TDs on the season as a team. It has scored just eight TDs via the pass, and despite Zay Jones having caught 41 of 69 targeted passes with four TDs, the rest of the roster has been far less effective. Kelvin Benjamin has 354 yards and Robert Foster adds another 256, but Buffalo’s offense has been pretty pitiful despite these few standouts. This game may take on the appearance of a defensive struggle, but do not be so deceived: These are two teams with really poor offensive schemes and systems, just trying to find their footing against one another.